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Article
Probabilistic Project Duration Estimation Based on Uncertainty of Linkage between Activities
Author(s)
Seon-Gyoo Kim1 and Junyoung Kim2
Full-Text PDF XML 666 Views
DOI:10.17265/1934-7359/2020.04.005
Affiliation(s)
1. Department of Architectural Engineering, Kangwon National University, Chuncheon200-701, South Korea
2. Institute of Technology, Mooyoung Construction Management Co. Ltd., Seoul, South Korea
ABSTRACT
Generally,one of the most
difficult works at scheduling is to estimate the duration of activities and linkages
between them because the possibility that the duration and linkages could be
exposed to the uncertainties is very high. When estimating project duration,
therefore, the probabilistic estimation of the duration as well as the probabilistic
estimation of the linkages between activities should be considered
concurrently. The Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) that is considered to be one of the most popular
techniques applied for the probabilistic estimation of a project duration
cannot consider the uncertainties of the linkages because it only estimates the
probabilistic duration limited to “FS0” relationship. The purpose of this study is to propose
the new method, the Probabilistic Linkage Evaluation Technique (PLET), for
probabilistically estimating the project duration based on the probabilistic
estimation of the BDM’s relationships, and also provide more wide and various
probabilistic information about the project duration.
KEYWORDS
PDM, BDM, linkage, overlap, probabilistic evaluation.
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