The Impact of Demographics and Cultural Tourism on University Enrollments in Calabria, Italy

The decline in the birth rate, which has been uninterrupted in Italy since the mid-1960s, has had a significant impact on many aspects of society. As far as the educational system is concerned, this phenomenon has acted like a wave, first causing a decline in the population of the first school age groups, then in the other groups, until recently affecting the 19-25 age group, which includes the majority of university students. As a result, the majority of Italian universities have seen a decline over time in both enrollments (matriculations) and student numbers (enrollments), although the situation varies from one area to another. In the Mezzogiorno, this trend is even more pronounced, since an increasing number of resident students tend to favor universities in the Centre-North, creating a South-Centre-North movement, which could be compared to a particular form of cultural tourism, without a similar flow in the opposite direction. Finally, the study highlights the probable consequences of the recent demographic depopulation on the future trend of university enrollment of residents aged 19-25 in the Calabria region, using the most recent demographic projections of Istat and constructing two evolutionary scenarios. In the first scenario, we have assumed that in the near future university enrollment rates remain constant throughout the period considered; in the second scenario, these rates instead experience a gradual and continuous increase. These results could be useful if further forecasts of university enrollments were to be made at the level of individual Calabrian universities.

De Bartolo, G. (1980). Strutture e tendenze della scuola materna e della scuola dell’obbligo nelle provincie calabre. Proceedings from the Conference on Tempo pieno e sperimentazione. January 23-25, Department of Educational Sciences, University of Calabria, SNS-CGIL, Cosenza.

De Bartolo, G., & Lombardo, E. (1981). Il futuro della popolazione calabra. Una proposta per i prossimi venti anni. Cosenza: Tipografia Editrice Dott. Silvio Chiappetta.

Gini, C., & De Finetti, B. (1931). Calcoli sullo sviluppo futuro della popolazione italiana. Annali di Statistica, serial no. VI, vol. X.

Istat. (2022a). Population and household forecasts—Base 1/1/2021. Report, 2/9/2022.

Istat. (2022b). Italian statistical yearbook 2022.

Istat. (2023). Demographic indicators—Year 2022. Report, April 9, 2023.

Pearl, R., & Reed, L. J. (1920). On the rate of growth of the population of the United States since 1790 and its mathematical representation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, 6(6), 275-288.

Svimez. (2023). Rapporto Svimez 2022. L’economia e la società del Mezzogiorno. Il Mulino.