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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License
Article
Socio-Economic and Political Analysis of a Fragile State: A Reflection on Ethiopia
Author(s)
Asayehgn Desta
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DOI:10.17265/2328-2185/2023.02.003
Affiliation(s)
Dominican University of California, San Rafael, USA
ABSTRACT
A review of the literature indicates that, currently, Ethiopia is now beyond the bounds of fragility. The purpose of the study was to investigate whether Ethiopia was experiencing fragility. After a review of the literature on fragility, a theoretical framework lens on fragility was developed to empirically test Ethiopia’s current condition. A longitudinal analysis indicates that before 2018, Ethiopia was regarded as the central economic engine of sub-Saharan Africa. However, as the current regime reversed Ethiopia’s developmental state model and moved to follow a neo-liberal model, Ethiopia’s economy has gradually diminished. More specifically, during the current regime, Ethiopia has experienced a decline in its Gross Domestic Product, faced rampant unemployment, and encountered an increase in inflation. Its foreign exchange currency reserves have declined below the three-month threshold of hard currency required for a country to import goods and services, and its external debt has extended beyond the country’s GDP. By encouraging armed conflict and widespread insurgencies, the current regime has caused social tension and deep humanitarian crises in Ethiopia—resulting in devastation of health and school facilities and causing more than five million Ethiopians to be displaced. Finally, failing to provide leadership to his people, the current regime in Ethiopia has willingly allowed the incursion of Ethiopia’s sovereignty by foreign forces. The conclusion of the study is that, when observed through the lens of fragility using a longitudinal framework, currently, Ethiopia has traversed beyond fragility and seems to be heading toward balkanization.
KEYWORDS
fragility, developmental state, neo-liberal model, legitimacy, sovereignty
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