Probability Assessment

The methodology presented below can be viewed as a means of quantifying intuitions, guesses, hunches etc., about relative likelihoods for alternative events leading to a “ballpark” probability distribution. Different intuitions etc., will lead to different “ballpark” distributions. A final distribution can then be formulated by the decision-maker using other information as in minimum or maximum collective probabilities for groups of events or similar assessments. Final judgments may be idiosyncratic to the decision-maker and not easily replicable in an algorithm.