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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License
Article
The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle in the Economy of Turkey
Author(s)
Şehnaz Bakır Yiğitbaş
Full-Text PDF
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DOI:10.17265/1537-1506/2016.03.003
Affiliation(s)
Şehnaz Bakır Yiğitbaş, Ph.D., lecturer, Department of Finance-Banking and Insurance, Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University, Çanakkale, Turkey.
ABSTRACT
This study examines econometric relationships between bank lending and the business cycle in Turkey. Firstly, the cyclical components of the real GDP and real bank loans were determined using time series. A cointegration analysis and a vector error-correction model with quarterly data were used for period of 1987:01-2013:03. The results of cointegration analysis indicate that there is a single stable long-run equilibrium relationship between real bank loans and macroeconomic variables. The response of bank loans to GDP shocks is positive. Bank loans have pro-cyclical character in Turkey.
KEYWORDS
business cycle, credit cycle, Turkish economy
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References
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