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Article
Ukrainian Crisis: Who Has the Upper Hand or Russia-Wes Possible to Lift the Sanctions?
Author(s)
Ivan Timofeev
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DOI:10.17265/2578-4269/2023.01.012
Affiliation(s)
Center for Spatial Analysis in International Relations, MGIMO University, Russia
ABSTRACT
In the 2022 Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the EU shouldered the heavy burden of breaking trade and economic ties with Russia and dealing with the problem of Ukrainian refugees; The losses in the United States are significantly lower than those in the European Union. But Moscow’s confrontation with the West has brought NATO a rare unity and prompted European countries to increase spending on security. China has benefited from the crisis, mainly in the form of reduced military and political pressure on it by the United States, increasing its influence in Central Asia, and at the same time gaining access to most of the Russian market and cheaper access to Russian resources because of Western sanctions. Japan’s prospects for a peace treaty with Russia over the crisis have become extremely murky, and India has been minimally affected by the crisis, with other beneficiaries including other countries that have been severely sanctioned by the United States. However, even if a compromise is reached between Russia and Ukraine, sanctions may be partially or fully retained for political reasons. It is likely that the West will show flexibility in easing sanctions based on its own economic interests. The main problem is the stability of the decisions made. The sanctions regime could be reinstated at any time.
KEYWORDS
Ukrainian Crisis, Russia, sanctions
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