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Article
Author(s)
Iván Ayala Bizarro, Ivette Contreras Espinoza, Cristel Aguirre Vera, Marco López Barrantes, Jorge Ortega Vargas, Abdon Olivera Quintanilla, Hugo Lujan Jeri and Eleuterio Alcántara Espinoza
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DOI:10.17265/2162-5298/2019.06.002
Affiliation(s)
Department of Civil Engineering, National University of Huancavelica, Huancavelica 09001, Peru
ABSTRACT
The research entitled, “Determination of the Real Dotation and Forecast of
the Potable Water System in the Huancavelica city-Peru”, has as objective to determine and analyze
the actual endowment and prognosis of the drinking water system in the city of Huancavelica.
The city of Huancavelica has a population of approximately 50,000.00 inhabitants
and 10,680.00 users of drinking water and sewerage according to the source Companies
Providing This Service, the same one that is located in the western chain and central
saw range of Perú and belongs to a cold climate. The sample was extracted through
Companies Providing This Service EMAPA Huancavelica SA (Anonymous Society), which
corresponds to 1,296 data from the consumption
of water in cubic meters of each dwelling located in the various categories of each
sector. The results obtained from the research indicate that the category that consumed
more water during the period 2004-2018 was the domestic
category, the same one that had an average of 1,152,123 cubic meters, this is due
to the population growth of each year. On the other side, the category that consumed the least
water was the social category, the average consumption of which was 11,903.47 cubic meters. In addition,
the greatest variability in water consumption is in the state category, the total
variation being equal to 21.6%. In the Huancavelica city, water consumption has
a growing trend and to predict the volume of drinking water consumption by 2030,
water consumption was transformed by first differences, using the ARIMA (Autoregressive
Integrated Moving Average) model for total consumption model (0-1-1) (2-0-0)-12
and for the domestic consumption the ARIMA model (0-1-2) (0-0-2)-12. On the other hand, water
consumption was analyzed on a monthly basis in which there is greater variability
for the months June-6 and December-12. It was taken into account for the calculation of
the endowment the domestic consumption,
having values ranging from 6.45 L/inhab/day until 1,460 L/inhab/day, which reflects a considerable variation to consider. The
average value in the spring station is 109.44 L/inhab/day, in the summer station
it is 116.93 L/inhab/day, in the autumn station it is 117.17 L/inhab/day and in
the winter station it is 108.48 L/inhab/day. Also, the average minimum endowment
equal to 7.66 L/inhab/day was obtained, the average maximum endowment is of 569.03 L/inhab/day and the actual endowment
113.01 L/inhab/day. Finally, it is concluded that the estimated average actual endowment
for the Huancavelica city, that is to say, 113.01 L/inhab/day, is much less than that indicated in the Norma
OS.100 of the Basic Considerations of Sanitary Infrastructure Design of the RNE
(Reglamento Nacional de Edificaciones), the same one that mentions the endowment
equal to 180 L/inhab/day for cold climates, which means a reduction of costs in
the dimensioning of hydraulic structures and sanitation and drinking water works.
KEYWORDS
Drinking water, real consumption, critical demand, forecasting drinking water.
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