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Affiliation(s)

Faculty of Symbiotic Systems Science, Fukushima University, Kanayagawa 1, Fukushima City, 960-1296 Fukushima, Japan

ABSTRACT

This paper aims to evaluate the probability of landslide hazards using a physical model (TRIGRS: Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Region Slope-Stability) for a regional scale considering the variations of a triggering rainfall condition and land-cover under the climate change. There are certain uncertainties raising from the soil properties and soil depth determination, assumption of groundwater, as well as the same root cohesion for all tree cover in the forest-related region. However, the application of TRIGRS model in a regional scale would provide important references for the distribution of landslide prone area regarding scenarios about changes of weather condition and land cover situation. It thus would support local authorities in obtaining more adequate land planning strategies in a river basin to mitigate potential hazard from the slope failure issue.

KEYWORDS

Climate change risk, extreme precipitation event, land use change, scenario, the factor of safety (Fs).

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