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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License
Article
Author(s)
Kong Feng1, 2, 3, 4, Wang Yifei1 and Lu Lili1, 2
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DOI:10.17265/2162-5298/2017.05.001
Affiliation(s)
1. China Meteorological Administration Training Center, Beijing 100081, China
2. China Meteorological Administration Development Research Center, Beijing 100081, China
3. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
4. Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education, Beijing 100875, China
ABSTRACT
Daily precipitation analyses for 659 Chinese
meteorological stations from 1951 to 2010 show that the rapid urbanization may
have triggered the significant increase of heavy rainfall in China. During the
last decades, HRAs (Heavy Rainfall Amounts), HRDs (Heavy
Rainfall Days) and HRI (Heavy Rainfall Intensity) in China have
increased. Impressively, the upward trends are not randomly observed among
stations, but of robust consistency with quite large regional scale over large widely
and significantly. Compared to the 1950s, the HRA, HRD, and HRI increased by 68.71%, 60.15% and
11.52% during the 2000s. The significant increase of accumulative heavy
rainfall appears firstly in the southeastern coasts in the early period, and
then gradually expands to the central, southwest, north and northeast China.
Rapid urbanization is very likely the main cause of large-scale heavy rainfall
increase in China. The urbanization indicators including the industrial
production output (GDP2), UP (Urban Population) and annual average HDs (Haze
Days) are in good agreement with the heavy rainfall variations, and these
indicators can statistically explain the variance of HRA, HRD and HRI by 61.54%, 58.48% and 65.54%, respectively. Meanwhile, the explained variance by
leading climate indices including WPSH (Western Pacific Subtropical High), ENSO
(El Nino-Southern Oscillation), AMO (Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation) and
AAO (Antarctic Oscillation) are respectively 24.30%, 26.23% and 21.92%, being only about 1/3 of the
urbanization-related variance. Panel data analysis of county-level total population
and annual average visibility days less than 10 km also show that these two
indicators have significant correlation with decadal HRA, HRD & HRI and the
spatial correlation coefficient increases gradually with time. These consistent
temporal and spatial features strongly suggest that rapid urbanization most
likely triggered the steady increase of heavy rainfall over China during the
recent decades.
KEYWORDS
Climate change, accumulated heavy rainfall, urbanization, natural factors, China.
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